How to Use Odds Percentages to Identify the Best Bet Soccer Value

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How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the Best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and how they provide a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, the most popular sport for the moment, and to suggest some follow up to help people identify value when they’re betting on the game.

What I’ll show you is:

  1. how to calculate the bookmakers percentages;
  2. what these percentages tell us;
  3. how to assess value in the odds;
  4. how to allocate your stake.

How to calculate the bookmakers’ percentages

The following data are taken from a Europa League qualifying match in July 2009 between Bangor City v Honka. The two bookmakers selected are the two that offered the best price for the draw:

Bookmaker 1

· Home win 4/1 – 20.00%;

· Draw 11/4 – 26.67%;

· Away win 8/15 – 65.22%;

· Total – 111.89%.

Bookmaker2

· Home win 11/4 – 26.67%;

· Draw 11/4 – 26.67%;

· Away win 8/11 – 57.89%;

· Total – 111.23%

Best odds

· Home win 11/4 – 26.67%;

· Draw 11/4 – 26.67%;

· Away win 8/11 – 57.89%;

· Total – 111.89%

To calculate the percentages divide 100 by the odds on offer plus one. Where the odds are A/B:100/B = 4/1 = 4%

Absolute value of the percentage

· Home win 20.00%;

· Draw 11/4 26.67%;

· Away win 8/11 57.89%;

· Total – 111.23%

Best strategy

· Home win 11/4 26.67%;

· Draw 11/4 26.67%;

· Away win 8/11 57.89%;

· Total – 111.89%

Bookmaker 1 offers the best price for the home win, so we have to round this to 26.67% to take into account the commission.

So, we have a percentage of 111.89 / 100 = 26.67%

Now the bookmaker offers 8/11 57.89% as the percentage. We divide this by 100 to make 100. With two bookmakers we have 100 / 8 = 26.67%

Effective Strategy

· Home win 11/4 26.67%;

· Draw 11/4 26.67%;

· Away win 8/11 57.89%;

· Total – 111.23%

This is theEffective Strategy for soccer betting on the Fitzpatrick Survey. While I am not able to determine with certainty what the percentages should be, it is my best professional judgment that these operate as described. However,such a margin of error is inevitable and the above data have been ballpark.

There are many other factors that affect the odds, the least of which may be related to the eagerness of the bookmakers to publish unrealistic odds. These may have the effect of skewing the results in the direction of the bookmakers favor.

Despite this, I believe that the fundamentals of the survey are sound and with a little tweaking, the results can be further refined.

OUR STATE LUCKily provides a statistical approach to soccer betting which puts the odds firmly in the bookmakers favour.

Using real time data collected from all major European leagues over an entire season, the breakthrough statistical approach can be applied to any league in any country.

crucially, it can be applied irrespective of the bookmakers in question. In effect, it is the ‘seat of the pants’ approach to betting. Rather like the punters courage or skill, the decisions taken are based on a disciplined approach across all the major leagues, as far as our own experience has permitted us.

It is obvious that the bookmakers are increasingly relying on a pricing model with ever increasing extremes. Even the bookmakers admitted at the High Stakes Poker World Series in Las Vegas, last year, had to introduce a model because their prices had been reflecting the increasing aggression of the market.

Our approach can be that, just as the bookmakers are constantly recalibrating the prices on offer, so too should you be able to adjust the approach to your betting.

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